Portland Timbers — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.1% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.7% / 33.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portland Timbers have a slight edge over Seattle Sounders in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence points to a closely contested match rather than a decisive gap between the teams. The available indicators lean toward the home side, with the 1X signal suggesting that Portland Timbers are better placed to avoid defeat.
The game is expected to be high-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That points to an open contest in which momentum could shift between the sides, especially if either team scores early. The main scoreline scenarios include a balanced draw as well as narrow victories for either Portland Timbers or Seattle Sounders. Overall, the hosts have the stronger outlook, but Seattle Sounders remain a credible threat and the result could stay uncertain deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Seattle Sounders squad absences for the derby
Seattle Sounders defender Jackson Ragen is suspended for the match against Portland Timbers. Midfielder Hassani Dotson will also miss out due to a hamstring injury.
Recent head-to-head meeting ended in a landslide
In their previous meeting on July 16, 2026, the Portland Timbers secured a dominant 5-1 victory over the Seattle Sounders away at Lumen Field.
Portland Timbers coaching situation for the match
Portland interim head coach Jack Cassidy continues to guide the team while newly appointed head coach Martí Cifuentes awaits finalization of his visa.
Cascadia Cup rivalry context
The match between Portland and Seattle counts toward the 2026 Cascadia Cup standings, the historic rivalry competition contested between Pacific Northwest clubs.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.