Portland Timbers — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.1% |
| 12 | 77.8% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home San Diego FC 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:1
- 17.08.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 02.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 26.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:3
This season: Portland Timbers at home vs Austin FC away
| Metric | Portland Timbers · at home | Austin FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 6–2–2 | 1–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.30 | 1.09 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 2.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 91% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.04.2025 Austin FC 0:0 Portland Timbers
- 02.03.2025 Portland Timbers 1:0 Austin FC
- 03.10.2024 Portland Timbers 0:1 Austin FC
- 30.05.2024 Austin FC 0:2 Portland Timbers
- 18.09.2023 Austin FC 1:2 Portland Timbers
- 07.05.2023 Portland Timbers 2:2 Austin FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Portland Timbers enter this MLS fixture with a moderate, slight edge over Austin FC, but the assessment points to a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest. The projected scorelines include a narrow home win and a draw, suggesting that the margin between the teams may remain small for long periods. Portland Timbers are the more likely side to control the overall outcome, although Austin FC retain a realistic route into the game.
The main attacking signal is for a high-scoring encounter, with both teams likely to score. That points toward an open match in which defensive control may be difficult to maintain, particularly if either side finds an early breakthrough. The 1:1 and 2:1 scorelines reflect the balance between Portland Timbers’ home advantage and Austin FC’s scoring potential, while 2:0 represents a more controlled home performance. Overall, Portland Timbers have the clearer edge, but the expected pattern is competitive and goal-focused.
What matters before kick-off
Austin FC exit Leagues Cup
Austin FC were eliminated from the Leagues Cup following a 2-0 quarterfinal defeat against Toluca on August 26, 2026, right before returning to MLS play against the Portland Timbers.
Coaching transition at Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers head coach Martí Cifuentes, who was appointed in July 2026, officially began managing the team from the touchline in August.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.