Philadelphia Union — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 26.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.8% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 36.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.48 → now 1.53 |
| X | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 5.75 → now 5.25 |
Match preview
Philadelphia Union come into this MLS meeting with a clear overall edge over Orlando City SC, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the matchup is not without uncertainty. The assessment points toward a high-scoring contest, with Philadelphia Union expected to be more likely to control the outcome while Orlando City SC retain a credible attacking threat.
Both teams are likely to score, making this less of a defensive stalemate and more of an open game with opportunities at both ends. Philadelphia Union appear better placed to turn that attacking balance into a positive result, but Orlando City SC’s projected contribution means the hosts may need to remain active and focused throughout. The most plausible scenarios range from a narrow home win to a more comfortable Philadelphia Union success, while a draw also remains within the broader range of outcomes.
What matters before kick-off
Orlando City international duty absences
Orlando City SC will be without David Brekalo, Wilder Cartagena, Justin Ellis, Marco Pašalić, and Tyrese Spicer due to international duty. Midfielder Braian Ojeda is also ruled out with a foot injury.
Griezmann and Dorsey listed as questionable
According to Orlando City's player status report, forward Antoine Griezmann (thigh) and defender Griffin Dorsey (back) are both listed as questionable ahead of the match.
Philadelphia Union on a five-match winning streak
Philadelphia Union enter the contest on a five-match winning streak and an 11-game unbeaten run in MLS regular season play, having recently defeated Sporting Kansas City 4-3.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.