Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Philadelphia Union have a slight edge over FC Cincinnati in what appears to be a closely contested MLS meeting. The assessment carries moderate confidence, so the home advantage should be viewed as a meaningful factor rather than a decisive one. FC Cincinnati remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can exploit spaces and maintain pressure in the attacking phases.
The available indicators point toward an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. That suggests the contest may be shaped by transitions, defensive organization and the ability to respond after conceding. Philadelphia Union could have enough to create the better opportunities at home, but FC Cincinnati have a credible path to staying involved throughout the match. The balance therefore leans toward the hosts, while the scoring pattern points to a game in which neither side is likely to remain quiet.
What matters before kick-off
FC Cincinnati's unexpected break
FC Cincinnati come into the fixture well-rested after their scheduled weekend MLS match against D.C. United was postponed due to heavy rainfall.
Philadelphia Union's unbeaten run
Philadelphia Union enter the midweek match on an eight-game unbeaten streak in Major League Soccer, coming off a 2-0 home victory against CF Montréal.
Head-to-head record in Chester
FC Cincinnati have won just one of their seven regular-season MLS visits to Subaru Park to face the Philadelphia Union.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.