Philadelphia Union — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
62.3%
Home win
Philadelphia Union
X
20.2%
Draw
W2
17.6%
Away win
Charlotte FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.4%
Both teams to score
Yes67.5%
Totals 2.5
Over72.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.4% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 37.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.7% / 67.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
Goal distribution model
Philadelphia Union × Charlotte FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.3%
0:1
2.0%
0:2
1.9%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.7%
1:1
8.4%
1:2
4.8%
1:3
2.1%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.1%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.8%
3:1
7.5%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.1%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
3.6%
4:1
4.7%
4:2
3.0%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.8%
5:1
2.3%
5:2
1.5%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:19.1%
1:18.4%
3:17.5%
2:07.1%
2:25.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
- 20.09.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 4:3
- 14.09.2026 away San Diego FC 5:0
- 10.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 5:0
- 06.09.2026 home CF Montreal 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away DC United 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away FC Cincinnati 3:3
- 10.09.2026 away CF Montreal 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:0
This season: Philadelphia Union at home vs Charlotte FC away
| Metric | Philadelphia Union · at home | Charlotte FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–3 | 5–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.62 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 69% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Philadelphia Union wins1
Draws2
Charlotte FC wins3
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 05.04.2026 Charlotte FC 2:1 Philadelphia Union
- 18.10.2025 Charlotte FC 2:0 Philadelphia Union
- 15.06.2025 Philadelphia Union 2:1 Charlotte FC
- 23.06.2024 Philadelphia Union 0:2 Charlotte FC
- 26.05.2024 Charlotte FC 0:0 Philadelphia Union
- 21.09.2023 Charlotte FC 2:2 Philadelphia Union
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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