Minnesota United FC — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.4%
Home win
Minnesota United FC
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
36.8%
Away win
Saint Louis City SC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.3%
Both teams to score
Yes67.1%
Totals 2.5
Over65.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.2% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Goal distribution model
Minnesota United FC × Saint Louis City SC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.5%
0:1
4.8%
0:2
4.8%
0:3
2.7%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
4.9%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
4.5%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
5.0%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
4.7%
3:2
3.9%
3:3
2.2%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
2:18.3%
1:28.1%
2:26.9%
2:05.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:3
- 20.09.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 2:3
- 13.09.2026 away St. Louis City 2:4
- 10.09.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 4:5
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Toronto FC 3:1
- 13.09.2026 home Minnesota United 4:2
- 10.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs Saint Louis City SC away
| Metric | Minnesota United FC · at home | Saint Louis City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 2–6–5 | 5–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.08 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.23 | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Minnesota United FC wins4
Draws0
Saint Louis City SC wins2
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 13.09.2026 Saint Louis City SC 4:2 Minnesota United FC
- 27.07.2025 Saint Louis City SC 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 18.05.2025 Minnesota United FC 3:0 Saint Louis City SC
- 20.10.2024 Minnesota United FC 4:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 15.09.2024 Saint Louis City SC 1:3 Minnesota United FC
- 24.09.2023 Minnesota United FC 1:2 Saint Louis City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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