PFC CSKA Sofia — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
14.6%
Home win
PFC CSKA Sofia
X
19.8%
Draw
W2
65.6%
Away win
AS Monaco
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X285.4%
Both teams to score
Yes53.1%
Totals 2.5
Over59.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 34.4% |
| 12 | 80.2% | |
| X2 | 85.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.3% / 18.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Goal distribution model
PFC CSKA Sofia × AS Monaco
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.9%
0:1
9.8%
0:2
10.8%
0:3
7.8%
0:4
4.2%
0:5
1.8%
1
1:0
4.0%
1:1
9.4%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
7.1%
1:4
3.8%
1:5
1.6%
2
2:0
1.9%
2:1
4.2%
2:2
4.5%
2:3
3.2%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
0.6%
3:1
1.3%
3:2
1.4%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.3%
4:2
0.3%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
0:210.8%
1:29.9%
0:19.8%
1:19.4%
0:37.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
PFC CSKA Sofia
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 home Maccabi Tel Aviv FC 1:3
- 06.08.2026 away Maccabi Tel Aviv FC 3:0
- 30.07.2026 home Qarabag FK 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Marseille 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.