Paris FC — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.9%
Home win
Paris FC
X
25.3%
Draw
W2
31.9%
Away win
AS Monaco
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.7%
Both teams to score
Yes61.0%
Totals 2.5
Over58.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.1% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.0% / 19.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.7% / 64.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Goal distribution model
Paris FC × AS Monaco
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.5%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
4.7%
0:3
2.2%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.4%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
9.0%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
4.9%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
2:19.0%
1:27.6%
1:07.4%
2:06.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Paris FC
6th place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Lens 1:2
- 18.10.2026 home Rennes 4:3
- 10.10.2026 away Lorient 0:1
- 19.09.2026 home Strasbourg 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Lyon 0:0
AS Monaco
4th place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Lille 1:1
- 18.10.2026 away Lorient 0:1
- 10.10.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
This season: Paris FC at home vs AS Monaco away
| Metric | Paris FC · at home | AS Monaco · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.96 | 0.89 |
| xG against per match | 1.19 | 1.42 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Paris FC wins2
Draws0
AS Monaco wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 10.04.2026 Paris FC 4:1 AS Monaco
- 01.11.2025 AS Monaco 0:1 Paris FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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