Olympique Marseille — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
51.6%
Home win
Olympique Marseille
X
23.8%
Draw
W2
24.5%
Away win
Toulouse FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.2%
Both teams to score
Yes63.9%
Totals 2.5
Over63.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Goal distribution model
Olympique Marseille × Toulouse FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.7%
0:1
3.9%
0:2
3.2%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.4%
1:1
10.7%
1:2
6.4%
1:3
2.8%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.8%
3:1
6.3%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.3%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
2:19.6%
2:07.3%
1:06.4%
1:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Olympique Marseille
8th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Le Havre 4:3
- 18.10.2026 away Angers 5:2
- 11.10.2026 away Troyes 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Paris SG 1:2
- 11.09.2026 away Rennes 0:1
Toulouse FC
11th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Troyes 0:0
- 16.10.2026 away Le Mans 3:0
- 10.10.2026 away Monaco 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home Le Havre 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away Lorient 2:2
This season: Olympique Marseille at home vs Toulouse FC away
| Metric | Olympique Marseille · at home | Toulouse FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–2 | 1–3–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| xG against per match | 2.92 | 1.45 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 3.75 | 2.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Olympique Marseille wins3
Draws3
Toulouse FC wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 07.03.2026 Toulouse FC 0:1 Olympique Marseille
- 29.11.2025 Olympique Marseille 2:2 Toulouse FC
- 06.04.2025 Olympique Marseille 3:2 Toulouse FC
- 31.08.2024 Toulouse FC 1:3 Olympique Marseille
- 21.04.2024 Toulouse FC 2:2 Olympique Marseille
- 17.09.2023 Olympique Marseille 0:0 Toulouse FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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