ESTAC Troyes — Le Mans FC: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.7%
Home win
ESTAC Troyes
X
26.7%
Draw
W2
30.6%
Away win
Le Mans FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.3%
Both teams to score
Yes59.4%
Totals 2.5
Over55.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Goal distribution model
ESTAC Troyes × Le Mans FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
4.7%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.6%
1:1
12.6%
1:2
7.5%
1:3
3.3%
1:4
1.1%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.9%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.0%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.7%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
3.2%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.6%
2:19.1%
1:07.6%
1:27.5%
2:06.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
ESTAC Troyes
17th place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Toulouse 0:0
- 17.10.2026 home Lens 1:3
- 11.10.2026 home Marseille 0:2
- 19.09.2026 away Angers 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Lille 0:2
Le Mans FC
15th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Auxerre 1:1
- 16.10.2026 home Toulouse 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Paris SG 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home Lorient 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Lens 2:2
This season: ESTAC Troyes at home vs Le Mans FC away
| Metric | ESTAC Troyes · at home | Le Mans FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 0–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.75 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.41 | 1.76 |
| xG against per match | 1.87 | 2.34 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.25 | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
ESTAC Troyes wins1
Draws1
Le Mans FC wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/3
Over 2.5 goals2/3
- 31.01.2026 ESTAC Troyes 0:2 Le Mans FC
- 03.10.2025 Le Mans FC 2:2 ESTAC Troyes
- 18.10.2019 ESTAC Troyes 2:1 Le Mans FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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