FC Lorient — Stade Brest 29: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.2%
Home win
FC Lorient
X
28.7%
Draw
W2
33.1%
Away win
Stade Brest 29
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.3%
Both teams to score
Yes56.6%
Totals 2.5
Over51.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.9% |
| 12 | 71.3% | |
| X2 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Goal distribution model
FC Lorient × Stade Brest 29
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.1%
0:1
7.1%
0:2
5.6%
0:3
2.4%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.9%
1:1
13.7%
1:2
7.9%
1:3
3.4%
1:4
1.1%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.6%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.1%
3:1
4.1%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.7%
2:18.6%
0:08.1%
1:27.9%
1:07.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
FC Lorient
9th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Angers 0:0
- 18.10.2026 home Monaco 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Paris FC 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away Le Mans 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
Stade Brest 29
13th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Nice 1:2
- 17.10.2026 away Lille 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Angers 5:1
- 20.09.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Paris SG 0:1
This season: FC Lorient at home vs Stade Brest 29 away
| Metric | FC Lorient · at home | Stade Brest 29 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.08 | 1.56 |
| xG against per match | 1.19 | 1.45 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.25 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Lorient wins2
Draws1
Stade Brest 29 wins3
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 07.02.2026 Stade Brest 29 2:0 FC Lorient
- 19.10.2025 FC Lorient 3:3 Stade Brest 29
- 31.03.2024 FC Lorient 0:1 Stade Brest 29
- 20.12.2023 Stade Brest 29 4:0 FC Lorient
- 07.05.2023 FC Lorient 2:1 Stade Brest 29
- 09.10.2022 Stade Brest 29 1:2 FC Lorient
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.60 → now 2.45 |
| W2 | was 2.60 → now 2.80 |
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