Panathinaikos Athens — Paksi FC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.0% |
| 12 | 84.5% | |
| X2 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Panathinaikos Athens enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side against Paksi FC. The overall assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, suggesting that Panathinaikos should control more of the match and create the better opportunities. Paksi FC will need to remain disciplined without the ball and make efficient use of the chances that come their way, particularly if the home side establishes territorial control early.
The scoring outlook points towards an open game with several attacking moments rather than a tightly contained contest. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so Paksi FC retain a reasonable path to finding the net even though the balance strongly favours Panathinaikos Athens. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1, all of which reflect the hosts’ greater strength while allowing for different levels of resistance from the visitors.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.