HSK Zrinjski Mostar — Valur Reykjavik: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.9% |
| 12 | 87.0% | |
| X2 | 19.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.2% / 16.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.3% / 59.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.4% / 77.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
HSK Zrinjski Mostar enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving them a high level of confidence. Valur Reykjavik face a demanding away assignment, while the hosts are expected to control much of the match through greater overall strength and sustained pressure. The outlook points toward an open game with several scoring opportunities, but the defensive balance still favours Zrinjski.
Valur Reykjavik will need to remain disciplined without the ball and make the most of their limited attacking moments. HSK Zrinjski Mostar appear better placed to dictate the tempo and create the more dangerous chances, while a clean sheet is considered likely. The central expectation is therefore a home victory, with the match profile combining strong support for the hosts with the possibility of a relatively productive evening in front of goal.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.