GKS Katowice — MSK Zilina: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.1% |
| 12 | 79.7% | |
| X2 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
GKS Katowice enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage over MSK Zilina. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with the home side better placed to control the contest. That edge may come from a more measured approach, particularly if GKS Katowice can establish a stable rhythm and limit MSK Zilina’s opportunities to respond in transition.
The scoring outlook remains balanced rather than one-sided. Both teams scoring is considered equally plausible, so the match could develop into a controlled home victory or remain close if MSK Zilina stay organised defensively. The most consistent scoreline scenarios are a narrow 1:0 or a more comfortable 2:0 win for GKS Katowice, while 1:1 also remains a credible outcome. Overall, the hosts look clearly stronger, but the moderate confidence level suggests that the margin between the teams should not be overstated.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
MŠK Žilina secured a 2-1 victory against GKS Katowice in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round on July 23, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.