GKS Katowice — MSK Zilina: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.0% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.65 → now 1.57 |
| X | was 3.80 → now 4.10 |
| X2 | was 4.50 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
GKS Katowice face MSK Zilina in the UEFA Conference League qualifying round, with the hosts holding a slight edge in the pre-match assessment. That advantage is limited, however, and the low confidence level points to a contest where the balance could shift during the match. GKS Katowice may have the stronger overall position, but MSK Zilina remain capable of making the tie competitive.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match with several meaningful attacking phases without necessarily becoming open from the start. Whether both teams score is difficult to call, so neither side has a clear advantage in that specific market. A narrow home win and a draw both fit the broader picture, while a controlled GKS Katowice performance could also restrict MSK Zilina's chances. The hosts appear marginally better placed, but the difference between the teams is not substantial enough to expect a straightforward match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.