FK Austria Wien — FK Liepaja: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.1% |
| 12 | 87.2% | |
| X2 | 17.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.4% / 58.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Austria Wien go into this UEFA Conference League qualification tie with a clear advantage over FK Liepaja. The available assessment describes the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence in that view. Austria Wien should therefore be expected to take the initiative, control more of the match and create the more convincing attacking phases. FK Liepaja face a demanding task, particularly if they are forced to defend for long periods and struggle to establish possession in advanced areas.
The scoring outlook points towards an open match with several opportunities, while also indicating that a clean sheet for Austria Wien is likely. That combination suggests the hosts could build a comfortable lead without necessarily allowing Liepaja to respond on the scoreboard. The most plausible scorelines lean towards an Austria Wien victory by a margin of two or more goals, although a narrower home win also remains within the expected range. Overall, the matchup favours FK Austria Wien both in control and attacking efficiency.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.