FK Austria Wien — FK Liepaja: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.7% |
| 12 | 84.8% | |
| X2 | 22.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Austria Wien go into this UEFA Conference League qualification tie with a clear advantage over FK Liepaja. The available assessment describes the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence in that view. Austria Wien should therefore be expected to take the initiative, control more of the match and create the more convincing attacking phases. FK Liepaja face a demanding task, particularly if they are forced to defend for long periods and struggle to establish possession in advanced areas.
The scoring outlook points towards an open match with several opportunities, while also indicating that a clean sheet for Austria Wien is likely. That combination suggests the hosts could build a comfortable lead without necessarily allowing Liepaja to respond on the scoreboard. The most plausible scorelines lean towards an Austria Wien victory by a margin of two or more goals, although a narrower home win also remains within the expected range. Overall, the matchup favours FK Austria Wien both in control and attacking efficiency.
What matters before kick-off
First Leg Result
FK Austria Wien secured a 2–0 away victory against FK Liepaja in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round on July 23, 2026, with goals from Florian Wustinger and Moritz Wels.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.