KAA Gent — LNZ Cherkasy: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.8% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.0% / 55.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.45 → now 1.40 |
| X | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
| X2 | was 6.50 → now 7.00 |
Match preview
KAA Gent enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side on the available assessment, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the matchup should be approached with some caution. LNZ Cherkasy face a demanding assignment away from home, while Gent will be expected to take the initiative and control the overall rhythm of the game.
The scoring outlook points toward a medium-scoring contest rather than an open goal-fest. The main projection favours a narrow home win, with 1-0 and 2-0 among the likely scorelines, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative. The assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so it is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether LNZ Cherkasy will find the net. Overall, the pre-match signal gives KAA Gent the advantage, but not to the extent that the visitors can be dismissed.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.