FC CFR 1907 Cluj — FC Alashkert Yerevan: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.2% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.5% / 68.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC CFR 1907 Cluj approach this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the hosts still need to impose their quality carefully. FC Alashkert Yerevan are the visitors, and the overall assessment points toward Cluj having the better platform, particularly if they control the rhythm and avoid allowing the match to become unnecessarily open.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than heavily dominated by goals. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home win, with 1-0 and 2-0 among the leading possibilities, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative. That also reflects the view that both teams scoring is difficult to separate: it is effectively a balanced question rather than a strong signal in either direction. Cluj therefore have the advantage, but the tie should be approached as a competitive qualification match in which efficiency may matter as much as territorial control.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.