FC Sion — Bate Borisov: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.8% |
| 12 | 87.7% | |
| X2 | 16.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Sion enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outlook. The available assessment points toward an assertive performance from the Swiss team, especially in an attacking sense. FC Sion should look to establish control early, apply sustained pressure, and turn their territorial advantage into a comfortable margin rather than allowing Bate Borisov to grow into the contest.
Bate Borisov face a difficult task against a side expected to create several scoring opportunities. The match profile suggests a high-scoring home victory, while a clean sheet for FC Sion is also considered likely. That combination indicates a game in which the hosts could dominate both possession and the quality of chances, with Bate Borisov needing to remain compact and disciplined to limit the damage. The central question is whether the visitors can resist FC Sion’s attacking pressure for long periods, but the overall balance gives the hosts a clear advantage in this qualification meeting.
What matters before kick-off
First-Leg Result
The first leg of the second qualifying round tie between BATE Borisov and FC Sion ended in a 1-1 draw at a neutral venue in Azerbaijan.
FC Sion Recent Result
Between their Conference League legs, FC Sion opened their Swiss Super League season with a 4-2 defeat away to Young Boys.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.