FC Sion — Bate Borisov: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.2% |
| 12 | 89.9% | |
| X2 | 12.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Sion enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outlook. The available assessment points toward an assertive performance from the Swiss team, especially in an attacking sense. FC Sion should look to establish control early, apply sustained pressure, and turn their territorial advantage into a comfortable margin rather than allowing Bate Borisov to grow into the contest.
Bate Borisov face a difficult task against a side expected to create several scoring opportunities. The match profile suggests a high-scoring home victory, while a clean sheet for FC Sion is also considered likely. That combination indicates a game in which the hosts could dominate both possession and the quality of chances, with Bate Borisov needing to remain compact and disciplined to limit the damage. The central question is whether the visitors can resist FC Sion’s attacking pressure for long periods, but the overall balance gives the hosts a clear advantage in this qualification meeting.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.