Ajax Amsterdam — FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.7% |
| 12 | 90.8% | |
| X2 | 14.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. The overall scoring outlook is also high, suggesting a match in which Ajax Amsterdam should be able to create sustained pressure and generate several opportunities. Their superiority is reflected in the most likely scorelines, all of which point towards a home victory with a clean sheet.
FK Vojvodina Novi Sad face a demanding task against an opponent expected to control much of the match. However, the assessment of both teams scoring remains balanced rather than decisive, so FK Vojvodina Novi Sad cannot be ruled out from finding a way onto the scoresheet. Even so, the main analytical signal favours Ajax Amsterdam, with the home side best placed to impose the tempo and convert their territorial advantage. The likely shape is a controlled home performance with multiple goals, though the exact margin remains open.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Ajax secured a 4-1 victory over FK Vojvodina in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League second qualifying round tie in Serbia.
Tolu Arokodare unavailable
New Ajax signing Tolu Arokodare is ineligible to make his European debut against Vojvodina due to UEFA registration rules.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.