Shkendija Tetovo — Bravo Ljubljana: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.1% |
| 12 | 80.0% | |
| X2 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Shkendija Tetovo enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Bravo Ljubljana. The assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Shkendija’s home setting is an important part of the match context, while Bravo will look to keep the contest close and make the most of any opportunities that arise.
A medium-scoring game is expected, with 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 representing the most likely scorelines. That range indicates a match where Shkendija could control the overall balance without necessarily turning the tie into an open contest. The outlook on both teams scoring is finely balanced, so Bravo have a realistic chance of contributing to the score, but there is no strong basis for expecting goals at both ends. Overall, the match leans toward a home win, with Shkendija Tetovo holding the more convincing position.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.