PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad — Hapoel Tel Aviv FC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad have a slight edge over Hapoel Tel Aviv FC in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a clear difference between the sides. Home advantage may support Ludogorets, but the overall outlook remains balanced enough for Hapoel Tel Aviv to stay competitive throughout.
A medium-scoring game is the most suitable expectation, with neither team showing a clearly stronger indication in the scoring markets. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, so the match could develop into an open contest or remain relatively controlled. Ludogorets appear marginally more likely to impose themselves, but the draw remains a credible possibility and the visitors should not be discounted.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.