Panathinaikos Athens — FC CSKA 1948: Win probabilities, 05.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.5% |
| 12 | 84.0% | |
| X2 | 22.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Panathinaikos Athens appear clearly stronger than FC CSKA 1948 in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie. The available assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence edge, suggesting that Panathinaikos Athens should be able to control much of the match and create the more consistent attacking threat. FC CSKA 1948 may need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly if they are unable to match the hosts in possession or territorial pressure.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring rather than an open contest with numerous goals. A clean sheet for Panathinaikos Athens is considered likely, which points towards a match shaped by the hosts’ defensive control as well as their superiority in attack. The leading scorelines are 2:0, 1:0 and 3:0, all of which indicate a home win without FC CSKA 1948 finding the net. Overall, the outlook favours Panathinaikos Athens, while the visitors’ main challenge will be to limit the damage and keep the tie competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Path to the third qualifying round
Panathinaikos advanced to the third qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League with a 4-3 aggregate victory over Hungarian side Paksi FC, while FC CSKA 1948 Sofia reached this stage by defeating Spartak Trnava on penalties following two goalless legs.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.