FC Noah Yerevan — FC Sion: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.9% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Noah Yerevan and FC Sion appear evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Conference League qualification meeting. With moderate confidence in the assessment, the match is difficult to separate on overall balance. Neither side has a clear analytical advantage, so the opening stages may be important as both teams look to establish control without exposing space.
The expected pattern points towards a medium-scoring contest in which both FC Noah Yerevan and FC Sion have a realistic chance of finding the net. The main scoreline scenario is a 1:1 draw, while a narrow FC Sion win or a narrow FC Noah Yerevan victory also fit the assessment. This suggests a competitive game where small moments, particularly in transition and around the penalty areas, could influence the outcome. The available signal leans away from a clear home victory, but the overall picture remains balanced rather than decisive.
What matters before kick-off
FC Noah Advanced to the Third Qualifying Round
FC Noah reached the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round after defeating Moldovan side Zimbru 3-2 on aggregate in the previous stage.
FC Sion Defeated BATE to Set Up Clash
Swiss side FC Sion set up their tie against FC Noah by defeating Belarusian club BATE 4-0 in the second leg of the second qualifying round, securing a 5-1 aggregate victory.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.