FK Jablonec — FC RFS: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.9% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Jablonec have a slight edge over FC RFS in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the low confidence level points to a closely contestable match rather than a clear advantage. The available assessment suggests a medium-scoring game, with the hosts marginally better placed to control the overall balance.
There is no strong signal on whether both teams will score, making that aspect difficult to separate. The most plausible scorelines are 1:0, 1:1 and 2:0, which reflects a narrow range between a disciplined FK Jablonec victory and a match that remains level. FC RFS should therefore remain competitive, while FK Jablonec may need to make their territorial advantage count without assuming the game will open up.
What matters before kick-off
FC RFS advance to third qualifying round
Latvian club FC RFS reached the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round by defeating Icelandic side Vestri 5-2 on aggregate (4-1 at home and 1-1 away).
Third qualifying round first leg matchup
The match between FK Jablonec and FC RFS serves as the first leg of their 2026/27 UEFA Conference League third qualifying round tie.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.