HJK Helsinki — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.4% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
HJK Helsinki and Motherwell FC look evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Conference League qualifying meeting. The assessment carries moderate confidence, so there is no clear basis for expecting one side to control the contest from the outset. The home side has a slight edge in the overall signal, but the gap remains narrow and a draw is a realistic possibility.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match with opportunities at both ends without pointing to an especially open contest. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, making it difficult to identify a dependable pattern in that market. A closely fought game appears most likely, with the result potentially decided by small moments in either penalty area. HJK Helsinki may have enough to avoid defeat, but Motherwell FC should remain competitive throughout and will have a credible chance of taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Previous Conference League Qualifying Result
Motherwell booked their spot in the Conference League third qualifying round with a 5-0 aggregate victory over Faroese side HB Torshavn, capped by a 3-0 away win in the second leg.
Motherwell's Domestic Season Opener
On August 2, Motherwell secured a 2-1 victory against Hibernian on the opening day of the Scottish Premiership season, with goals from Lukas Fadinger and Ibrahim Said.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.