Pafos FC — FC Salzburg: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.8% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Pafos FC and FC Salzburg meet in the UEFA Europa League qualification, with the available assessment pointing to a closely balanced contest. The confidence is moderate, and neither side has a clearly defined advantage in the overall outcome. That suggests a match likely to be decided by small details, particularly how well each team manages transitions and sustains pressure during the key phases.
The scoring outlook is medium, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. This points towards an open game rather than one dominated by defensive caution, with opportunities expected at both ends. FC Salzburg have a slight edge in the market signal through the X2 indication, meaning that avoiding defeat appears more likely for the visitors, but the overall reading remains one of evenly matched teams. Pafos FC should still have a credible route into the contest, especially if they can use home conditions to maintain intensity and create pressure in the attacking areas.
What matters before kick-off
Ken Sema suspension
Pafos player Ken Sema is suspended for the second leg following a red card in the first match. He came on as a substitute in the second half and received two yellow cards.
First-leg result
In the first leg of the Europa League third qualifying round, FC Salzburg secured a 1-0 home victory over Pafos FC, with Haris Tabaković scoring the winning goal in the 88th minute.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.