AC Omonia Nicosia — Lincoln Red Imps: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.4% |
| 12 | 89.7% | |
| X2 | 15.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.3% / 13.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AC Omonia Nicosia enter this UEFA Europa League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side against Lincoln Red Imps. The available assessment gives the hosts a high level of confidence, with the main signal pointing towards a home win. That suggests AC Omonia Nicosia should control more of the match, impose the greater attacking pressure and create the clearer opportunities, particularly if they establish authority early.
The game is also expected to have a high-scoring character, although the outlook on both teams finding the net remains balanced rather than decisive. Lincoln Red Imps therefore cannot be completely discounted in attack, but their wider task is likely to be limiting the hosts' territory and managing sustained pressure. Scoreline indications of 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0 all point towards a victory for AC Omonia Nicosia, with the margin depending on how efficiently they convert their chances and whether Lincoln Red Imps can remain compact for long periods.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
The first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round between Lincoln Red Imps and Omonia Nicosia ended in a 1-1 draw. Christian Rutjens put Lincoln ahead in the 71st minute before Mateo Maric scored a 93rd-minute equalizer for Omonia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.