Gornik Zabrze — Ferencvarosi Budapest: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.9% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gornik Zabrze and Ferencvarosi Budapest meet in a UEFA Europa League qualification tie that appears evenly matched. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence rather than a clear advantage for either side, so the contest may be decided by small details and how each team manages the key phases of the match.
The expected scoring level is medium, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. That suggests a game in which neither defence can be assumed to dominate, while the overall pattern still looks competitive rather than one-sided. The strongest directional signal favours Gornik Zabrze avoiding defeat, but the draw remains a substantial possibility. Scorelines such as 1-1, 2-1, or 1-0 fit the balanced outlook, with the first of these reflecting the uncertainty most closely.
What matters before kick-off
First leg qualification result
In the first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round played on August 5, 2026, Ferencvaros defeated Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at home following a goal by Marius Corbu.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.