OFI Crete — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 16.7% |
| 12 | 89.8% | |
| X2 | 93.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.5% / 1.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.1% / 62.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 11.00 → now 12.00 |
| X | was 7.00 → now 8.00 |
| W2 | was 1.22 → now 1.18 |
Match preview
OFI Crete face a demanding challenge against Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League, with the visitors holding a clear advantage in the overall assessment. Bayer Leverkusen are expected to have the stronger side of the contest, making an away win the most convincing reading of this fixture. OFI Crete will need to make the most of their opportunities and remain competitive throughout if they are to disrupt the visitors’ expected control.
The match also has the potential to produce several goals, suggesting an open contest rather than a low-scoring tactical stalemate. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger outlook in attack and are well placed to create the more decisive chances, while OFI Crete face the challenge of containing that threat over the course of the game. Scores such as 0-2, 0-3 and 1-2 reflect the expected balance, with the visitors favoured to find the net more consistently.
Whether OFI Crete can contribute to the scoring remains less clear, as both teams finding the net is a finely balanced possibility. The central expectation is that Bayer Leverkusen will have the upper hand, with a multi-goal match a reasonable prospect. OFI Crete may still create moments of danger, but Bayer Leverkusen enter this fixture with a distinctly stronger overall profile.
What matters before kick-off
Head-to-head history
OFI Crete and Bayer Leverkusen have met only once previously, in the 1995 UEFA Intertoto Cup, where Leverkusen secured a 1-0 victory.
Bayer Leverkusen's Europa League start
Bayer Leverkusen won both of their opening two UEFA Europa League league phase matches with six unanswered goals, including a 4-0 away win against Lech Poznan.
OFI Crete's Europa League campaign
OFI Crete opened their UEFA Europa League campaign with a 2-0 home victory against German side TSG Hoffenheim before suffering a 2-1 defeat to Stade Rennais on matchday two.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.