Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.6% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.2% / 20.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur meet in what looks like an evenly matched EPL contest. Neither side has a clear advantage in the available assessment, and the moderate confidence level points to a game where small details may have a significant influence. The balance between the teams makes a cautious reading more appropriate than any strong prediction.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough match for chances at both ends, while still leaving room for periods of control and defensive organisation. Nottingham Forest hold a slight positional edge in the market signal, particularly through the protection offered by avoiding an away win, but Tottenham Hotspur remain fully capable of competing on equal terms. A close match with goals from both sides is the most consistent interpretation of the available information.
What matters before kick-off
Nottingham Forest Recent Result
Nottingham Forest entered the match following a 2-2 draw away at Liverpool in their previous Premier League fixture.
Tottenham Hotspur Season Start
Tottenham Hotspur lost their opening two Premier League fixtures against Brentford (0-3) and Newcastle United (0-2) without scoring a goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.