Hull City — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.6% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 78.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Hull City
3rd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Coventry 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Man United 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Norwich 2:1
- 25.04.2026 away Charlton 1:2
- 21.04.2026 away Leicester 2:2
Aston Villa
20th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Man City 2:1
- 15.05.2026 home Liverpool 4:2
- 10.05.2026 away Burnley 2:2
This season: Hull City at home vs Aston Villa away
| Metric | Hull City · at home | Aston Villa · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.01 | 0.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.83 | 3.77 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aston Villa have a slight edge over Hull City in this matchup, with the overall assessment pointing towards the visitors avoiding defeat. The confidence in that view is high, although the gap between the teams is not presented as decisive. The match profile suggests a medium-scoring contest, so neither side is expected to dominate the game completely.
Both teams scoring is considered difficult to call, leaving a balanced range of possible outcomes. A draw remains a credible scenario, while narrow wins for Aston Villa also fit the assessment. Hull City’s route to a positive result may depend on keeping the game close and taking advantage of limited opportunities, whereas Aston Villa appear better placed to turn a tight contest in their favour. The main signal supports Aston Villa or a draw rather than a clear home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Premier League fixture at MKM Stadium
Hull City host Aston Villa at the MKM Stadium in matchweek 3 of the Premier League on 5 September 2026.
Hull City head coach signs new deal
Hull City head coach Sergej Jakirovic signed a new two-year contract with the club ahead of the match against Aston Villa.
Premier League season start
Hull City won their first two games upon returning to the Premier League, while Aston Villa lost their opening two fixtures without scoring a goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.