Hull City — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.6% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 78.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Aston Villa have a slight edge over Hull City in this matchup, with the overall assessment pointing towards the visitors avoiding defeat. The confidence in that view is high, although the gap between the teams is not presented as decisive. The match profile suggests a medium-scoring contest, so neither side is expected to dominate the game completely.
Both teams scoring is considered difficult to call, leaving a balanced range of possible outcomes. A draw remains a credible scenario, while narrow wins for Aston Villa also fit the assessment. Hull City’s route to a positive result may depend on keeping the game close and taking advantage of limited opportunities, whereas Aston Villa appear better placed to turn a tight contest in their favour. The main signal supports Aston Villa or a draw rather than a clear home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Premier League fixture at MKM Stadium
Hull City host Aston Villa at the MKM Stadium in matchweek 3 of the Premier League on 5 September 2026.
Hull City head coach signs new deal
Hull City head coach Sergej Jakirovic signed a new two-year contract with the club ahead of the match against Aston Villa.
Premier League season start
Hull City won their first two games upon returning to the Premier League, while Aston Villa lost their opening two fixtures without scoring a goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.