Brighton and Hove Albion — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.3% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Brighton and Hove Albion approach this fixture with a slight edge over Leeds United. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side has the stronger overall position, but not by a margin that removes the possibility of a draw. The most likely scorelines reflect that balance, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 all featuring among the leading outcomes.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring rather than develop into a consistently open contest. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect finely balanced. Brighton and Hove Albion may have enough control and home advantage to avoid defeat, while Leeds United remain capable of keeping the contest close. Overall, the analytical signal favors the hosts with a high level of confidence, but the match profile still allows for a narrow result or a shared point.
What matters before kick-off
Brighton and Leeds team news
Brighton manager Fabian Hürzeler confirmed midfielder Mats Wieffer is ruled out with a knee injury. For Leeds United, defender Joe Rodon is sidelined for up to ten weeks after suffering a serious hamstring injury.
Brighton home record against Leeds
Leeds United have never won an away match against Brighton at the Amex Stadium, with their last away victory against the Seagulls coming back in 2009.
Recent team results
Heading into the fixture, Brighton suffered a 4-3 defeat to Chelsea in their previous Premier League match, while Leeds United played out a 1-1 draw against Brentford.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.