Brighton and Hove Albion — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.3% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Brighton and Hove Albion
10th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Chelsea 3:4
- 23.08.2026 home Aston Villa 4:0
- 24.05.2026 home Man United 0:3
- 17.05.2026 away Leeds 0:1
- 09.05.2026 home Wolves 3:0
Leeds United
9th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Brighton 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tottenham 1:1
This season: Brighton and Hove Albion at home vs Leeds United away
| Metric | Brighton and Hove Albion · at home | Leeds United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.77 | 0.47 |
| xG against per match | 0.28 | 0.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Leeds United 1:0 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 01.11.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 3:0 Leeds United
- 11.03.2023 Leeds United 2:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 27.08.2022 Brighton and Hove Albion 1:0 Leeds United
- 15.05.2022 Leeds United 1:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 27.11.2021 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:0 Leeds United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Brighton and Hove Albion approach this fixture with a slight edge over Leeds United. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side has the stronger overall position, but not by a margin that removes the possibility of a draw. The most likely scorelines reflect that balance, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 all featuring among the leading outcomes.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring rather than develop into a consistently open contest. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect finely balanced. Brighton and Hove Albion may have enough control and home advantage to avoid defeat, while Leeds United remain capable of keeping the contest close. Overall, the analytical signal favors the hosts with a high level of confidence, but the match profile still allows for a narrow result or a shared point.
What matters before kick-off
Brighton and Leeds team news
Brighton manager Fabian Hürzeler confirmed midfielder Mats Wieffer is ruled out with a knee injury. For Leeds United, defender Joe Rodon is sidelined for up to ten weeks after suffering a serious hamstring injury.
Brighton home record against Leeds
Leeds United have never won an away match against Brighton at the Amex Stadium, with their last away victory against the Seagulls coming back in 2009.
Recent team results
Heading into the fixture, Brighton suffered a 4-3 defeat to Chelsea in their previous Premier League match, while Leeds United played out a 1-1 draw against Brentford.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.