Fulham — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.7% |
| 12 | 71.0% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fulham have a slight edge over Crystal Palace in this EPL meeting, with the qualitative assessment carrying high confidence. That points to a contest in which the hosts are viewed as the stronger side, although the margin is not large enough to rule out a draw or a competitive response from the visitors. The 1X signal also supports Fulham avoiding defeat rather than indicating a decisive home victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring assessed as a coin flip. That combination suggests a balanced attacking outlook: there is a reasonable path to goals from both sides, but also a plausible scenario in which one team keeps the game under control. The listed scorelines, 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reinforce the expectation of a close match. Fulham therefore enter with the clearer advantage, while Crystal Palace remain capable of keeping the result finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Fulham captain Tom Cairney ruled out
Fulham head coach Álvaro Arbeloa confirmed that team captain Tom Cairney is unavailable due to a knee injury.
Crystal Palace player availability updates
Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage confirmed Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaïla Sarr miss out through injury, joining long-term absentee Chadi Riad.
Crystal Palace unbeaten run at Craven Cottage
Crystal Palace remain unbeaten in their last seven Premier League away visits to Fulham at Craven Cottage, recording four wins and three draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.