Fulham — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.7% |
| 12 | 71.0% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Fulham
16th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Sunderland 0:1
- 24.08.2026 home Chelsea 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Newcastle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Wolves 1:1
- 09.05.2026 home Bournemouth 0:1
Crystal Palace
18th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
- 24.05.2026 home Arsenal 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Brentford 2:2
- 13.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
This season: Fulham at home vs Crystal Palace away
| Metric | Fulham · at home | Crystal Palace · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 1.96 |
| xG against per match | 1.70 | 1.12 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.01.2026 Crystal Palace 1:1 Fulham
- 07.12.2025 Fulham 1:2 Crystal Palace
- 22.02.2025 Fulham 0:2 Crystal Palace
- 09.11.2024 Crystal Palace 0:2 Fulham
- 27.04.2024 Fulham 1:1 Crystal Palace
- 23.09.2023 Crystal Palace 0:0 Fulham
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fulham have a slight edge over Crystal Palace in this EPL meeting, with the qualitative assessment carrying high confidence. That points to a contest in which the hosts are viewed as the stronger side, although the margin is not large enough to rule out a draw or a competitive response from the visitors. The 1X signal also supports Fulham avoiding defeat rather than indicating a decisive home victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring assessed as a coin flip. That combination suggests a balanced attacking outlook: there is a reasonable path to goals from both sides, but also a plausible scenario in which one team keeps the game under control. The listed scorelines, 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reinforce the expectation of a close match. Fulham therefore enter with the clearer advantage, while Crystal Palace remain capable of keeping the result finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Fulham captain Tom Cairney ruled out
Fulham head coach Álvaro Arbeloa confirmed that team captain Tom Cairney is unavailable due to a knee injury.
Crystal Palace player availability updates
Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage confirmed Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaïla Sarr miss out through injury, joining long-term absentee Chadi Riad.
Crystal Palace unbeaten run at Craven Cottage
Crystal Palace remain unbeaten in their last seven Premier League away visits to Fulham at Craven Cottage, recording four wins and three draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.