Manchester City — Coventry City: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.4% |
| 12 | 88.8% | |
| X2 | 16.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Manchester City
1st place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Aston Villa 1:2
- 19.05.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
- 13.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 3:0
Coventry City
17th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Hull 0:1
- 21.08.2026 away Arsenal 0:3
- 02.05.2026 away Watford 4:0
- 26.04.2026 home Wrexham 3:1
- 21.04.2026 home Portsmouth 5:1
This season: Manchester City at home vs Coventry City away
| Metric | Manchester City · at home | Coventry City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.36 | 0.20 |
| xG against per match | 0.63 | 1.88 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Manchester City enter this EPL fixture as the clearly stronger side against Coventry City, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high level of confidence. The main signal points towards a home win, while the scoring outlook suggests an open match with several goals possible. The listed scoreline scenarios all favour Manchester City and range from a controlled two-goal victory to a more emphatic result.
Coventry City still have a competitive task in trying to disrupt Manchester City’s attacking approach and keep the game within reach. The assessment does not establish a clear view on whether both teams will score, making that aspect more balanced than the overall outcome. Manchester City’s advantage is therefore most pronounced in the result projection rather than in a firm expectation that Coventry City will be shut out. Overall, the match profile points to Manchester City controlling the contest, with Coventry City needing an efficient performance to alter the expected pattern.
What matters before kick-off
Doku remains sidelined while Nunes returns
Manchester City manager Enzo Maresca confirmed that Jeremy Doku is still unavailable due to a calf injury, while Matheus Nunes has recovered and is ready to play.
Wright ruled out with quad injury
Coventry City forward Haji Wright is sidelined for the match against Manchester City following a serious quad injury sustained ahead of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.