Newcastle United — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.2% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Newcastle United
7th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Tottenham 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home Liverpool 2:2
- 24.05.2026 away Fulham 0:2
- 17.05.2026 home West Ham 3:1
- 10.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
Bournemouth
15th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
- 19.05.2026 home Man City 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Fulham 1:0
This season: Newcastle United at home vs Bournemouth away
| Metric | Newcastle United · at home | Bournemouth · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.57 | 0.63 |
| xG against per match | 2.98 | 2.36 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2026 Newcastle United 1:2 Bournemouth
- 21.09.2025 Bournemouth 0:0 Newcastle United
- 18.01.2025 Newcastle United 1:4 Bournemouth
- 25.08.2024 Bournemouth 1:1 Newcastle United
- 17.02.2024 Newcastle United 2:2 Bournemouth
- 11.11.2023 Bournemouth 2:0 Newcastle United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Newcastle United have a slight edge over Bournemouth in this EPL meeting, with the assessment indicating a relatively high level of confidence in the home side’s position. That advantage is not expected to make the match one-sided, however, as the underlying outlook points toward a competitive contest with opportunities at both ends.
The scoring profile suggests an open, high-scoring game, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines include a draw as well as narrow home wins, which underlines the balance between Newcastle United’s home advantage and Bournemouth’s attacking potential. The overall signal favours Newcastle United avoiding defeat, but Bournemouth remain capable of making the match difficult and contributing to the scoreline. A result shaped by goals from both sides appears more consistent with the available assessment than a controlled, low-scoring encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability ahead of kick-off
Newcastle United remain without Joelinton, William Osula, and Dan Burn due to injury, while summer signings Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Nico Gonzalez are included in the squad.
Unbeaten start to the Premier League season
Newcastle United took four points from their opening two 2026-27 Premier League matches after drawing 2-2 with Liverpool and defeating Tottenham Hotspur 2-0.
Recent head-to-head record at St. James' Park
Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League matches away at St. James' Park against Newcastle United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.