Newcastle United — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.2% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Newcastle United have a slight edge over Bournemouth in this EPL meeting, with the assessment indicating a relatively high level of confidence in the home side’s position. That advantage is not expected to make the match one-sided, however, as the underlying outlook points toward a competitive contest with opportunities at both ends.
The scoring profile suggests an open, high-scoring game, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines include a draw as well as narrow home wins, which underlines the balance between Newcastle United’s home advantage and Bournemouth’s attacking potential. The overall signal favours Newcastle United avoiding defeat, but Bournemouth remain capable of making the match difficult and contributing to the scoreline. A result shaped by goals from both sides appears more consistent with the available assessment than a controlled, low-scoring encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability ahead of kick-off
Newcastle United remain without Joelinton, William Osula, and Dan Burn due to injury, while summer signings Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Nico Gonzalez are included in the squad.
Unbeaten start to the Premier League season
Newcastle United took four points from their opening two 2026-27 Premier League matches after drawing 2-2 with Liverpool and defeating Tottenham Hotspur 2-0.
Recent head-to-head record at St. James' Park
Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League matches away at St. James' Park against Newcastle United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.