Brentford — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.1% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Brentford
6th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Tottenham 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
Sunderland
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
- 24.05.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Everton 3:1
- 09.05.2026 home Man United 0:0
This season: Brentford at home vs Sunderland away
| Metric | Brentford · at home | Sunderland · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.88 | 0.66 |
| xG against per match | 0.57 | 1.80 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 07.01.2026 Brentford 3:0 Sunderland
- 30.08.2025 Sunderland 2:1 Brentford
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Brentford have a slight edge over Sunderland in this EPL meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a decisive home advantage. The available assessment leans towards the hosts, but Sunderland remain capable of keeping the contest balanced, making the overall outcome difficult to separate with certainty.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of scoring. Both teams scoring is viewed as an even possibility, so there is no clear indication that either side will consistently control the attacking phases. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0, which reflect a match that could remain tight while still allowing Brentford to edge the result.
What matters before kick-off
Brentford Lineup News
Brentford head coach Keith Andrews made one change to his starting XI, with Dango Ouattara replacing Jaidon Anthony.
Injury Updates
Brentford midfielder Mathias Jensen misses the match due to a minor injury, while Sunderland are without Habib Diarra.
Recent Results
Brentford started their Premier League campaign with a 3-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur and a 1-1 draw against Leeds United, while Sunderland rebounded from an opening loss to Ipswich Town by beating Fulham 1-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.