Brentford — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.1% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Brentford have a slight edge over Sunderland in this EPL meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a decisive home advantage. The available assessment leans towards the hosts, but Sunderland remain capable of keeping the contest balanced, making the overall outcome difficult to separate with certainty.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of scoring. Both teams scoring is viewed as an even possibility, so there is no clear indication that either side will consistently control the attacking phases. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0, which reflect a match that could remain tight while still allowing Brentford to edge the result.
What matters before kick-off
Brentford Lineup News
Brentford head coach Keith Andrews made one change to his starting XI, with Dango Ouattara replacing Jaidon Anthony.
Injury Updates
Brentford midfielder Mathias Jensen misses the match due to a minor injury, while Sunderland are without Habib Diarra.
Recent Results
Brentford started their Premier League campaign with a 3-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur and a 1-1 draw against Leeds United, while Sunderland rebounded from an opening loss to Ipswich Town by beating Fulham 1-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.