Nottingham Forest — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.8% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 57.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.8% / 51.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nottingham Forest hold a slight edge over Leeds United in this EPL meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the teams. The home advantage gives Forest a marginally stronger position, but Leeds remain well placed to make the match competitive. The overall signal supports Nottingham Forest avoiding defeat rather than indicating a clear path to victory.
A medium-scoring game appears the most likely profile. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate from the alternative, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The projected scorelines reflect that balance: 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 are all plausible outcomes. Nottingham Forest may have enough control to edge the contest, but Leeds United have a realistic chance of taking something from the fixture.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.