Nottingham Forest — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nottingham Forest and Leeds United look evenly matched ahead of their EPL meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clearly established advantage. That balance makes the result difficult to separate, although the overall signal gives Nottingham Forest some protection through the possibility of avoiding defeat.
The match is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is therefore a credible outcome, with 1:1 standing out among the likely scorelines. A narrow Nottingham Forest win, such as 1:0, is also consistent with the assessment, while a goalless draw cannot be dismissed. The key theme is competitive uncertainty: Nottingham Forest may have a slight edge from playing at home, but Leeds United appear capable of keeping the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Nottingham Forest team news
Nottingham Forest head coach Oliver Glasner confirmed that club captain Ryan Yates and defender Nicolò Savona will miss the Premier League opening match against Leeds United.
First opening day meeting
The match on August 22, 2026, marks the first time Nottingham Forest and Leeds United face each other on the opening weekend of any league season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.