Nottingham Forest — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Bournemouth 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Man United 2:3
- 10.05.2026 home Newcastle 1:1
- 04.05.2026 away Chelsea 3:1
- 24.04.2026 away Sunderland 5:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Brighton 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tottenham 1:1
- 01.05.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 22.04.2026 away Bournemouth 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.02.2026 Leeds United 3:1 Nottingham Forest
- 09.11.2025 Nottingham Forest 3:1 Leeds United
- 04.04.2023 Leeds United 2:1 Nottingham Forest
- 05.02.2023 Nottingham Forest 1:0 Leeds United
- 08.02.2020 Nottingham Forest 2:0 Leeds United
- 10.08.2019 Leeds United 1:1 Nottingham Forest
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nottingham Forest and Leeds United look evenly matched ahead of their EPL meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clearly established advantage. That balance makes the result difficult to separate, although the overall signal gives Nottingham Forest some protection through the possibility of avoiding defeat.
The match is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is therefore a credible outcome, with 1:1 standing out among the likely scorelines. A narrow Nottingham Forest win, such as 1:0, is also consistent with the assessment, while a goalless draw cannot be dismissed. The key theme is competitive uncertainty: Nottingham Forest may have a slight edge from playing at home, but Leeds United appear capable of keeping the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Nottingham Forest team news
Nottingham Forest head coach Oliver Glasner confirmed that club captain Ryan Yates and defender Nicolò Savona will miss the Premier League opening match against Leeds United.
First opening day meeting
The match on August 22, 2026, marks the first time Nottingham Forest and Leeds United face each other on the opening weekend of any league season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.