Hull City — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 26.4% |
| 12 | 82.9% | |
| X2 | 90.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hull City face Manchester United in an EPL meeting where the visitors hold a clear advantage. The assessment points to Manchester United being clearly stronger overall, making an away win the leading outcome. Hull City will need to remain organised without the ball and make effective use of their opportunities, particularly against a side expected to carry greater attacking threat.
The match is also projected to be high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests Hull City may have opportunities despite Manchester United’s stronger position, although the visitors are expected to create more decisive chances. The most plausible scorelines are 0:2, 1:2 and 0:3, reflecting a contest in which Manchester United’s quality could prove influential while Hull City retain a realistic chance of contributing to the score.
What matters before kick-off
Manchester United team news
Manchester United defender Matthijs de Ligt is unavailable due to a back injury. Benjamin Šeško has returned to training, while Mason Mount remains a doubt following a minor knock.
Hull City's Premier League return
Hull City mark their return to the Premier League against Manchester United, playing their first top-flight match in a decade following promotion via the Championship play-offs.
Manchester United squad numbers
Ahead of the match, Manchester United confirmed Marcus Rashford has been handed the No. 9 shirt for the season, while Matheus Cunha wears No. 10.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.