Hull City — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 33.1% |
| 12 | 79.4% | |
| X2 | 87.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hull City face Manchester United in an English Premier League meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge, although the assessment carries only moderate confidence. Manchester United are expected to control more of the match and create the stronger attacking platform, while Hull City will need to remain compact and make good use of their opportunities.
The scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring contest rather than an open shootout. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect of the match difficult to separate. The most plausible scorelines lean towards a Manchester United victory, with 0-2 and 0-1 the main possibilities, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative if Hull City can limit the visitors' attacking influence. Overall, the balance favours Manchester United, but the moderate confidence suggests that the result is not without uncertainty.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.