Ipswich Town — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.6% / 25.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ipswich Town and Sunderland appear evenly matched, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The assessment points to a medium-scoring contest, suggesting that the match could develop through a balanced exchange rather than being controlled by one team for long periods. With moderate confidence, the central expectation is a competitive game in which small details may decide the outcome.
The scoring outlook is also finely balanced: both teams finding the net is considered as plausible as one of them being kept out. The available signal gives Sunderland some protection against defeat, but it does not establish the visitors as clear favourites. A draw, including a 1-1 scoreline, fits the overall profile, while a narrow Sunderland win or a goalless match remain credible alternatives. Ipswich Town will therefore need to turn home advantage into sustained pressure, while Sunderland can focus on remaining compact and taking advantage of limited chances.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.