Ipswich Town — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.7% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ipswich Town and Sunderland look evenly matched ahead of this EPL fixture. The moderate confidence level points to a contest without a clear overall favourite, with the home side and visitors separated by only a narrow margin in the assessment. The available signal gives Sunderland some protection against defeat, but it does not point to a decisive advantage.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains balanced. That combination suggests a game that could develop cautiously before opening up, although neither side is strongly favoured to control it throughout. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, reflecting the close balance and the possibility of a tight result. Ipswich Town should have enough of the contest to remain competitive, while Sunderland may be capable of taking something from the fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Ipswich Town player availability
Ipswich Town manager Gary O'Neil confirmed that Florentino Luis and Abdul Fatawu have recovered and will be available for selection against Sunderland.
Sunderland squad news
Sunderland manager Regis Le Bris stated that Nordi Mukiele is cleared to feature in the opening fixture against Ipswich, while Simon Adingra will miss out.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.