Ipswich Town — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.7% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 home QPR 3:0
- 28.04.2026 away Southampton 2:2
- 25.04.2026 away West Brom 0:0
- 22.04.2026 away Charlton 2:1
- 19.04.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Everton 3:1
- 09.05.2026 home Man United 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Wolves 1:1
- 24.04.2026 home Nott'm Forest 0:5
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.01.2024 Ipswich Town 2:1 Sunderland
- 06.08.2023 Sunderland 1:2 Ipswich Town
- 18.12.2021 Ipswich Town 1:1 Sunderland
- 20.11.2021 Sunderland 2:0 Ipswich Town
- 26.01.2021 Ipswich Town 0:1 Sunderland
- 03.11.2020 Sunderland 2:1 Ipswich Town
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ipswich Town and Sunderland look evenly matched ahead of this EPL fixture. The moderate confidence level points to a contest without a clear overall favourite, with the home side and visitors separated by only a narrow margin in the assessment. The available signal gives Sunderland some protection against defeat, but it does not point to a decisive advantage.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains balanced. That combination suggests a game that could develop cautiously before opening up, although neither side is strongly favoured to control it throughout. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, reflecting the close balance and the possibility of a tight result. Ipswich Town should have enough of the contest to remain competitive, while Sunderland may be capable of taking something from the fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Ipswich Town player availability
Ipswich Town manager Gary O'Neil confirmed that Florentino Luis and Abdul Fatawu have recovered and will be available for selection against Sunderland.
Sunderland squad news
Sunderland manager Regis Le Bris stated that Nordi Mukiele is cleared to feature in the opening fixture against Ipswich, while Simon Adingra will miss out.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.