Brighton and Hove Albion — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.0% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Man United 0:3
- 17.05.2026 away Leeds 0:1
- 09.05.2026 home Wolves 3:0
- 02.05.2026 away Newcastle 1:3
- 21.04.2026 home Chelsea 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Man City 2:1
- 15.05.2026 home Liverpool 4:2
- 10.05.2026 away Burnley 2:2
- 03.05.2026 home Tottenham 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away Fulham 0:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.02.2026 Aston Villa 1:0 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 03.12.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 3:4 Aston Villa
- 02.04.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:3 Aston Villa
- 30.12.2024 Aston Villa 2:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 05.05.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 1:0 Aston Villa
- 30.09.2023 Aston Villa 6:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Brighton and Hove Albion have a slight edge ahead of their EPL meeting with Aston Villa, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clearly one-sided match. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger overall position, but the gap between the teams remains limited. That makes protection against defeat a relevant angle for Brighton and Hove Albion, while Aston Villa retain a credible route to taking something from the match.
The game is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range, with the most plausible score patterns including a draw and narrow home victories. Both teams scoring is viewed as an even call, so there is no strong basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. Overall, the balance favours Brighton and Hove Albion modestly, but Aston Villa should keep the result uncertain deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Busy start to the season for Brighton
Brighton and Hove Albion played out a goalless draw away to Norwegian side Tromso in Conference League qualifying on Thursday, just three days before facing Aston Villa.
Aston Villa squad news ahead of season opener
Aston Villa summer signings Joao Gomes and Johan Manzambi are ruled out of the Premier League opener against Brighton due to calf and knee injuries respectively.
Aston Villa's head-to-head advantage
Aston Villa have won 64% of their Premier League encounters with Brighton (9 wins in 14 games), including a thrilling 4-3 victory at the Amex Stadium last season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.