Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Brentford have a slight edge over Tottenham Hotspur in what looks likely to be an open, high-scoring EPL contest. The available assessment points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided encounter, with the hosts holding only a moderate advantage. That suggests Brentford may be better placed to control key phases at home, but Tottenham Hotspur should have enough attacking threat to remain involved throughout.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance of the game particularly important. Brentford’s route to a positive result may depend on turning their home advantage into pressure and taking chances efficiently, while Tottenham Hotspur will look capable of creating opportunities in response. The most plausible outcomes include a draw or a narrow win for either side, with the overall signal favouring Brentford avoiding defeat. A closely fought match with several goals appears more likely than a cautious stalemate.
What matters before kick-off
Brentford squad news
Brentford defender Sepp van den Berg is set to miss the opening weeks of the 2026/27 season with a groin issue. Antoni Milambo is also ruled out for the Premier League opener against Tottenham.
Tottenham Hotspur squad updates
Tottenham Hotspur head coach Roberto De Zerbi confirmed Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro are unavailable against Brentford. However, striker Dominic Solanke returned to the squad following an ankle issue.
Debuts in starting line-ups
Mali midfielder Mamadou Sangaré makes his competitive Brentford debut in the Premier League opener. Tottenham hand competitive debuts to four summer signings: Sandro Tonali, Andy Robertson, Jan Paul van Hecke, and Marcos Senesi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.