Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home West Ham 3:0
- 27.04.2026 away Man United 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Everton 1:0
- 19.05.2026 away Chelsea 1:2
- 11.05.2026 home Leeds 1:1
- 03.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
- 25.04.2026 away Wolves 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.01.2026 Brentford 0:0 Tottenham Hotspur
- 06.12.2025 Tottenham Hotspur 2:0 Brentford
- 02.02.2025 Brentford 0:2 Tottenham Hotspur
- 21.09.2024 Tottenham Hotspur 3:1 Brentford
- 31.01.2024 Tottenham Hotspur 3:2 Brentford
- 13.08.2023 Brentford 2:2 Tottenham Hotspur
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Brentford have a slight edge over Tottenham Hotspur in what looks likely to be an open, high-scoring EPL contest. The available assessment points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided encounter, with the hosts holding only a moderate advantage. That suggests Brentford may be better placed to control key phases at home, but Tottenham Hotspur should have enough attacking threat to remain involved throughout.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance of the game particularly important. Brentford’s route to a positive result may depend on turning their home advantage into pressure and taking chances efficiently, while Tottenham Hotspur will look capable of creating opportunities in response. The most plausible outcomes include a draw or a narrow win for either side, with the overall signal favouring Brentford avoiding defeat. A closely fought match with several goals appears more likely than a cautious stalemate.
What matters before kick-off
Brentford squad news
Brentford defender Sepp van den Berg is set to miss the opening weeks of the 2026/27 season with a groin issue. Antoni Milambo is also ruled out for the Premier League opener against Tottenham.
Tottenham Hotspur squad updates
Tottenham Hotspur head coach Roberto De Zerbi confirmed Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro are unavailable against Brentford. However, striker Dominic Solanke returned to the squad following an ankle issue.
Debuts in starting line-ups
Mali midfielder Mamadou Sangaré makes his competitive Brentford debut in the Premier League opener. Tottenham hand competitive debuts to four summer signings: Sandro Tonali, Andy Robertson, Jan Paul van Hecke, and Marcos Senesi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
