Match intelligence

Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026

League: EPL (England) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Brentford3
:
0Tottenham Hotspur
Locked signal 1X Probability 71.1% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 45.6% Home win Brentford
X 25.5% Draw
W2 28.9% Away win Tottenham Hotspur
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1274.3%
Both teams to score
Yes66.6%
Totals 2.5
Over64.5%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X70.9%
1274.3%
X254.9%
Both teams to scoreYes/No66.6% / 33.4%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.8% / 5.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 86.1% / 13.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 64.5% / 35.5%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 42.5% / 57.5%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 24.2% / 75.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 12.0% / 88.0%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Brentford × Tottenham Hotspur
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.2%
0:1 3.7%
0:2 3.9%
0:3 1.9%
0:4 0.7%
0:5 0.2%
1
1:0 5.1%
1:1 11.4%
1:2 7.2%
1:3 3.5%
1:4 1.3%
1:5 0.4%
2
2:0 6.2%
2:1 9.1%
2:2 6.7%
2:3 3.3%
2:4 1.2%
2:5 0.4%
3
3:0 3.8%
3:1 5.6%
3:2 4.1%
3:3 2.0%
3:4 0.7%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 1.8%
4:1 2.6%
4:2 1.9%
4:3 0.9%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.7%
5:1 1.0%
5:2 0.7%
5:3 0.3%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.4%
2:19.1%
1:27.2%
2:26.7%
2:06.2%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:2
  • 09.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
  • 02.05.2026 home West Ham 3:0
  • 27.04.2026 away Man United 1:2

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.05.2026 home Everton 1:0
  • 19.05.2026 away Chelsea 1:2
  • 11.05.2026 home Leeds 1:1
  • 03.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
  • 25.04.2026 away Wolves 1:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Brentford wins0
Draws2
Tottenham Hotspur wins4
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
  • 01.01.2026 Brentford 0:0 Tottenham Hotspur
  • 06.12.2025 Tottenham Hotspur 2:0 Brentford
  • 02.02.2025 Brentford 0:2 Tottenham Hotspur
  • 21.09.2024 Tottenham Hotspur 3:1 Brentford
  • 31.01.2024 Tottenham Hotspur 3:2 Brentford
  • 13.08.2023 Brentford 2:2 Tottenham Hotspur

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Brentford have a slight edge over Tottenham Hotspur in what looks likely to be an open, high-scoring EPL contest. The available assessment points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided encounter, with the hosts holding only a moderate advantage. That suggests Brentford may be better placed to control key phases at home, but Tottenham Hotspur should have enough attacking threat to remain involved throughout.

Both teams are likely to score, making the balance of the game particularly important. Brentford’s route to a positive result may depend on turning their home advantage into pressure and taking chances efficiently, while Tottenham Hotspur will look capable of creating opportunities in response. The most plausible outcomes include a draw or a narrow win for either side, with the overall signal favouring Brentford avoiding defeat. A closely fought match with several goals appears more likely than a cautious stalemate.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Availability

Brentford squad news

Brentford defender Sepp van den Berg is set to miss the opening weeks of the 2026/27 season with a groin issue. Antoni Milambo is also ruled out for the Premier League opener against Tottenham.

Availability

Tottenham Hotspur squad updates

Tottenham Hotspur head coach Roberto De Zerbi confirmed Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro are unavailable against Brentford. However, striker Dominic Solanke returned to the squad following an ankle issue.

Team news

Debuts in starting line-ups

Mali midfielder Mamadou Sangaré makes his competitive Brentford debut in the Premier League opener. Tottenham hand competitive debuts to four summer signings: Sandro Tonali, Andy Robertson, Jan Paul van Hecke, and Marcos Senesi.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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