Manchester City — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.2% |
| 12 | 80.4% | |
| X2 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Aston Villa 1:2
- 19.05.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
- 13.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 3:0
- 09.05.2026 home Brentford 3:0
- 04.05.2026 away Everton 3:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
- 19.05.2026 home Man City 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Fulham 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 3:0
- 22.04.2026 home Leeds 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.05.2026 Bournemouth 1:1 Manchester City
- 02.11.2025 Manchester City 3:1 Bournemouth
- 20.05.2025 Manchester City 3:1 Bournemouth
- 02.11.2024 Bournemouth 2:1 Manchester City
- 24.02.2024 Bournemouth 0:1 Manchester City
- 04.11.2023 Manchester City 6:1 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Manchester City enter this EPL meeting with a clear overall edge over Bournemouth, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available projection points towards a high-scoring contest, with Manchester City favoured to control the outcome while Bournemouth remain capable of making an impact.
The scoring outlook also indicates that both teams are likely to find the net. That combination gives the match an open profile rather than one built around a narrowly expected margin. The main signal supports a home win, but the range of likely scorelines includes a close contest and a draw, so Bournemouth cannot be discounted entirely. Manchester City have the stronger pre-match position, while Bournemouth’s attacking contribution could keep the game competitive through its later stages.
What matters before kick-off
FA Community Shield result
Manchester City enter the Premier League opening fixture following a 3-0 defeat against Arsenal in the FA Community Shield on 16 August 2026.
Home head-to-head record
Manchester City have won all nine of their previous home Premier League matches against Bournemouth.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.