Manchester City — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.2% |
| 12 | 80.4% | |
| X2 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Manchester City enter this EPL meeting with a clear overall edge over Bournemouth, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available projection points towards a high-scoring contest, with Manchester City favoured to control the outcome while Bournemouth remain capable of making an impact.
The scoring outlook also indicates that both teams are likely to find the net. That combination gives the match an open profile rather than one built around a narrowly expected margin. The main signal supports a home win, but the range of likely scorelines includes a close contest and a draw, so Bournemouth cannot be discounted entirely. Manchester City have the stronger pre-match position, while Bournemouth’s attacking contribution could keep the game competitive through its later stages.
What matters before kick-off
FA Community Shield result
Manchester City enter the Premier League opening fixture following a 3-0 defeat against Arsenal in the FA Community Shield on 16 August 2026.
Home head-to-head record
Manchester City have won all nine of their previous home Premier League matches against Bournemouth.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.