Manchester City — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.5% |
| 12 | 82.3% | |
| X2 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.2% / 72.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Manchester City enter this EPL fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. Bournemouth face a demanding task against a team expected to control much of the match, but the available assessment still gives them a realistic route into the contest.
The game is projected to have a high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That points to an open encounter rather than a tightly contained battle, particularly if Bournemouth can make their attacking moments count. Manchester City have the stronger overall signal, but the range of likely scorelines includes both a narrow home win and a draw, reflecting some uncertainty around the final margin. The central expectation is therefore a Manchester City advantage in a match where Bournemouth may remain competitive.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.