Everton — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 58.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.3% / 24.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Tottenham 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Sunderland 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:2
- 04.05.2026 home Man City 3:3
- 25.04.2026 away West Ham 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Arsenal 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Brentford 2:2
- 13.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
- 10.05.2026 home Everton 2:2
- 03.05.2026 away Bournemouth 0:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Crystal Palace 2:2 Everton
- 05.10.2025 Everton 2:1 Crystal Palace
- 15.02.2025 Crystal Palace 1:2 Everton
- 28.09.2024 Everton 2:1 Crystal Palace
- 19.02.2024 Everton 1:1 Crystal Palace
- 11.11.2023 Crystal Palace 2:3 Everton
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Everton have a slight edge over Crystal Palace in what looks like a moderately balanced EPL contest. The assessment gives the hosts a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive advantage, so the match could remain competitive across the full 90 minutes. The overall scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring game, suggesting neither a particularly open shootout nor an unusually low-event encounter.
The expectation that both teams scoring is a coin flip underlines the uncertainty around the final pattern of the match. Everton may be marginally better placed to take control, but Crystal Palace remain capable of making the result difficult to call. A draw is a realistic possibility alongside a narrow Everton win, with the available scorelines reflecting a close contest rather than a one-sided performance. The most prudent reading is therefore that Everton hold the edge, while the result remains finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Everton midfield injury absentees
Everton manager David Moyes confirmed that Tim Iroegbunam (adductor strain), James Garner (hernia surgery recovery), and new signing Christian Norgaard are unavailable due to fitness issues.
Crystal Palace goalkeeper doubt
Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage noted that goalkeeper Dean Henderson dealt with an ankle issue ahead of the opening fixture.
Everton's head-to-head streak
Everton entered the fixture on an 11-match unbeaten run against Crystal Palace in Premier League encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.