Everton — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 58.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.3% / 24.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Everton have a slight edge over Crystal Palace in what looks like a moderately balanced EPL contest. The assessment gives the hosts a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive advantage, so the match could remain competitive across the full 90 minutes. The overall scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring game, suggesting neither a particularly open shootout nor an unusually low-event encounter.
The expectation that both teams scoring is a coin flip underlines the uncertainty around the final pattern of the match. Everton may be marginally better placed to take control, but Crystal Palace remain capable of making the result difficult to call. A draw is a realistic possibility alongside a narrow Everton win, with the available scorelines reflecting a close contest rather than a one-sided performance. The most prudent reading is therefore that Everton hold the edge, while the result remains finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Everton midfield injury absentees
Everton manager David Moyes confirmed that Tim Iroegbunam (adductor strain), James Garner (hernia surgery recovery), and new signing Christian Norgaard are unavailable due to fitness issues.
Crystal Palace goalkeeper doubt
Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage noted that goalkeeper Dean Henderson dealt with an ankle issue ahead of the opening fixture.
Everton's head-to-head streak
Everton entered the fixture on an 11-match unbeaten run against Crystal Palace in Premier League encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.