Everton — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Everton go into this EPL meeting with a slight edge over Crystal Palace, although the balance of the contest still leaves room for a draw. The available assessment points towards a medium-scoring game, with Everton’s home advantage providing the main distinction between the teams. Crystal Palace remain a credible opponent, and the overall outlook does not suggest a wide gap in attacking potential.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its chances. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, reflecting a game that may be decided by small details rather than sustained dominance. Everton appear better placed to avoid defeat, while Crystal Palace have enough presence to keep the result uncertain deep into the match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.