Arsenal — Coventry City: Win probabilities, 21.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.4% |
| 12 | 87.3% | |
| X2 | 18.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 21.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:1
- 18.05.2026 home Burnley 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away West Ham 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Fulham 3:0
- 25.04.2026 home Newcastle 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 away Watford 4:0
- 26.04.2026 home Wrexham 3:1
- 21.04.2026 home Portsmouth 5:1
- 17.04.2026 away Blackburn 1:1
- 11.04.2026 home Sheffield Weds 0:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Arsenal go into this EPL meeting with a clear overall advantage over Coventry City. The qualitative assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with high confidence behind that view. Arsenal should therefore be expected to control more of the match, particularly if they establish their preferred tempo early and force Coventry City to defend for long periods.
The game is also rated as potentially high-scoring, although whether both teams find the net remains uncertain. That leaves room for different match patterns: Arsenal could build a comfortable lead without conceding, or Coventry City could contribute if they take advantage of limited opportunities. The most plausible scorelines indicated are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, all of which reflect Arsenal’s stronger position while allowing for some variation in Coventry City’s attacking impact.
What matters before kick-off
Coventry City's Premier League return
Frank Lampard's Coventry City are playing their first Premier League match in 25 years after winning the Championship.
Arsenal team news
Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice are fit to be involved, while Bruno Guimaraes is out with a groin injury and Jurrien Timber has not yet returned to group training.
Coventry City team news
Coventry City striker Haji Wright is sidelined with a quad injury, while Ephron Mason-Clark and Jack Rudoni are available for selection.
Arsenal's Community Shield win
Arsenal enter the Premier League opening fixture following a 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.