Arsenal — Coventry City: Win probabilities, 21.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.8% |
| 12 | 89.1% | |
| X2 | 16.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Arsenal head into this EPL meeting with Coventry City as the clearly stronger side. The overall assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, while the scoring outlook points towards an open match with several goals. Arsenal’s expected control of the contest should allow them to dictate the tempo and create the more consistent attacking pressure.
Coventry City will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly when defending transitions and sustained pressure around their penalty area. The assessment does not give a clear view on whether both teams will score, so that aspect remains balanced rather than decisive. Likely scorelines include 3–0, 2–0 and 4–0, all reflecting Arsenal’s strength and the possibility of Coventry City being held without a goal.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.