Newcastle United — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.0% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 68.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Newcastle United and Liverpool look evenly matched ahead of their EPL meeting on 23 August 2026. The available assessment gives this balance a high level of confidence, suggesting that neither side has a decisive overall advantage. That points towards a competitive contest in which both teams should have opportunities to influence the result.
The match is also expected to be high-scoring, with both Newcastle United and Liverpool likely to find the net. The projected scorelines of 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2 reflect a narrow range of outcomes rather than a clear separation between the teams. Newcastle United will have the benefit of playing at home, while Liverpool remain capable of making the game open and difficult to control. A draw or a narrow Liverpool win fits the assessment, but the central expectation is for goals at both ends.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.