Newcastle United — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.0% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 75.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.1% / 63.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Fulham 0:2
- 17.05.2026 home West Ham 3:1
- 10.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Brighton 3:1
- 25.04.2026 away Arsenal 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 15.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:4
- 09.05.2026 home Chelsea 1:1
- 03.05.2026 away Man United 2:3
- 25.04.2026 home Crystal Palace 3:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Liverpool 4:1 Newcastle United
- 25.08.2025 Newcastle United 2:3 Liverpool
- 26.02.2025 Liverpool 2:0 Newcastle United
- 04.12.2024 Newcastle United 3:3 Liverpool
- 01.01.2024 Liverpool 4:2 Newcastle United
- 27.08.2023 Newcastle United 1:2 Liverpool
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Newcastle United host Liverpool in the EPL on 23 August 2026, with the available signals pointing toward an open and competitive match. The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests a game in which neither side can rely solely on defensive control, particularly if an early goal changes the balance.
Liverpool have a slight edge in the overall assessment, while the X2 signal indicates that the visitors are favoured to avoid defeat. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2, reflecting a close contest with several opportunities at both ends. Newcastle United should still have a realistic route into the game through their attacking threat, but Liverpool appear better positioned to manage the key moments. The expectation is therefore for a high-scoring match, with a draw or a narrow Liverpool victory more likely than a clear home success.
What matters before kick-off
Jeremy Jacquet's debut for Liverpool
Centre-back Jeremy Jacquet was named in Liverpool's starting line-up to make his competitive debut for the club against Newcastle United.
Newcastle United injury absences
Newcastle United enter their Premier League opener missing both Joelinton and Tino Livramento due to injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.