Newcastle United — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.0% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 75.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.1% / 63.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Newcastle United host Liverpool in the EPL on 23 August 2026, with the available signals pointing toward an open and competitive match. The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests a game in which neither side can rely solely on defensive control, particularly if an early goal changes the balance.
Liverpool have a slight edge in the overall assessment, while the X2 signal indicates that the visitors are favoured to avoid defeat. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2, reflecting a close contest with several opportunities at both ends. Newcastle United should still have a realistic route into the game through their attacking threat, but Liverpool appear better positioned to manage the key moments. The expectation is therefore for a high-scoring match, with a draw or a narrow Liverpool victory more likely than a clear home success.
What matters before kick-off
Jeremy Jacquet's debut for Liverpool
Centre-back Jeremy Jacquet was named in Liverpool's starting line-up to make his competitive debut for the club against Newcastle United.
Newcastle United injury absences
Newcastle United enter their Premier League opener missing both Joelinton and Tino Livramento due to injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.