Norwich City — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
61.6%
Home win
Norwich City
X
21.6%
Draw
W2
16.9%
Away win
Watford FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X83.1%
Both teams to score
Yes60.3%
Totals 2.5
Over64.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.1% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 38.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Goal distribution model
Norwich City × Watford FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
3.0%
0:2
2.2%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.1%
1:1
9.9%
1:2
4.9%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.9%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.6%
3:1
7.2%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.6%
4:1
4.0%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
1.8%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:19.9%
2:19.8%
2:08.9%
3:17.2%
1:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Norwich City
20th place · 12 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Charlton 3:1
- 17.10.2026 home Portsmouth 0:1
- 14.10.2026 home Southampton 0:1
- 10.10.2026 away Swansea 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bolton 3:4
Watford FC
21st place · 11 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Wolves 0:1
- 17.10.2026 home Charlton 2:0
- 13.10.2026 away Cardiff 1:5
- 10.10.2026 home Burnley 0:4
- 18.09.2026 away Bristol City 0:1
This season: Norwich City at home vs Watford FC away
| Metric | Norwich City · at home | Watford FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–4 | 0–1–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| xG for per match | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| xG against per match | 1.51 | 2.16 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.83 | 2.83 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Norwich City wins3
Draws0
Watford FC wins3
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 29.12.2025 Norwich City 0:1 Watford FC
- 06.12.2025 Watford FC 3:2 Norwich City
- 01.02.2025 Watford FC 0:1 Norwich City
- 21.09.2024 Norwich City 4:1 Watford FC
- 13.02.2024 Norwich City 4:2 Watford FC
- 28.11.2023 Watford FC 3:2 Norwich City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.60 → now 1.55 |
| W2 | was 4.75 → now 5.00 |
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