Lincoln City — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.1%
Home win
Lincoln City
X
26.3%
Draw
W2
45.7%
Away win
Birmingham City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.7%
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
Totals 2.5
Over52.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.3% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Goal distribution model
Lincoln City × Birmingham City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.0%
0:1
9.3%
0:2
7.8%
0:3
4.1%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
6.8%
1:1
12.5%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
4.9%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.4%
2:1
7.0%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
1.8%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.5%
1:29.3%
0:19.3%
0:27.8%
2:17.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Lincoln City
15th place · 15 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Burnley 4:1
- 17.10.2026 away Millwall 2:2
- 14.10.2026 home West Ham 0:6
- 10.10.2026 away Sheffield United 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Swansea 1:2
Birmingham City
8th place · 20 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Cardiff 0:1
- 17.10.2026 home QPR 3:0
- 13.10.2026 home Preston 4:0
- 10.10.2026 away West Brom 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
This season: Lincoln City at home vs Birmingham City away
| Metric | Lincoln City · at home | Birmingham City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–3 | 3–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| xG for per match | 1.72 | 1.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.45 | 1.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Lincoln City wins0
Draws0
Birmingham City wins2
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 08.03.2025 Birmingham City 1:0 Lincoln City
- 19.10.2024 Lincoln City 1:3 Birmingham City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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