Norwich City — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.6% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Norwich City
24th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Millwall 0:3
- 15.08.2026 home West Brom 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Hull 1:2
- 25.04.2026 home Swansea 1:1
- 21.04.2026 home Derby 2:1
Burnley FC
19th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away West Brom 1:3
- 16.08.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Wolves 1:1
- 18.05.2026 away Arsenal 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Aston Villa 2:2
This season: Norwich City at home vs Burnley FC away
| Metric | Norwich City · at home | Burnley FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.97 | 1.18 |
| xG against per match | 1.85 | 1.63 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2025 Burnley FC 2:1 Norwich City
- 15.12.2024 Norwich City 1:2 Burnley FC
- 04.02.2023 Norwich City 0:3 Burnley FC
- 25.10.2022 Burnley FC 1:0 Norwich City
- 10.04.2022 Norwich City 2:0 Burnley FC
- 02.10.2021 Burnley FC 0:0 Norwich City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Norwich City have a slight edge over Burnley FC in what looks like a competitive Championship fixture. The assessment is moderate rather than emphatic, suggesting that the hosts may have the stronger overall outlook but are unlikely to find the match straightforward. The available signal supports Norwich City avoiding defeat, while leaving room for a draw or a narrow result either way.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points towards an open contest in which each side should create opportunities, although neither attack is given a decisive advantage. A level scoreline is a realistic possibility, while a narrow Norwich City win also fits the wider assessment. Burnley FC should remain capable of causing problems, particularly if the visitors can turn the match into an even exchange rather than allowing the hosts to control its tempo.
What matters before kick-off
Norwich City League Cup progress
Norwich City secured a 2-1 away victory against Cardiff City in the second round of the EFL Cup on Tuesday.
Norwich City player availability
Norwich City are without defender José Córdoba through suspension, while Mirko Topić, Ali Ahmed and Lucien Mahovo remain sidelined with injuries.
Burnley League Cup exit
Burnley were eliminated from the EFL Cup in midweek following a penalty shootout loss to Bradford City after a 0-0 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.