Norwich City — Bolton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 81.9% | |
| X2 | 30.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.0% / 13.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.48 → now 1.40 |
| X | was 4.50 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 6.00 → now 6.50 |
Match preview
Norwich City meet Bolton Wanderers in the Championship with the available assessment giving the hosts a clear advantage, although the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive. The overall signal points towards a home win, but the balance of the preview still leaves room for Bolton Wanderers to make the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open match in which Norwich City’s stronger overall position may be tested by Bolton Wanderers’ attacking contribution. The main scoreline possibilities indicate a narrow home success or a more controlled Norwich City victory, while a draw also remains part of the range. The most suitable reading is therefore a home-sided match with goals at both ends and enough uncertainty to avoid treating the outcome as settled.
What matters before kick-off
Norwich City recent form
Norwich City enter the Championship match following a 5-0 defeat to Manchester City in the Carabao Cup and a 4-3 league loss against Middlesbrough.
Bolton Wanderers recent result
Bolton Wanderers snapped a four-game losing streak in their previous Championship fixture with a victory over Cardiff City, secured by a late winner from Thierry Gale.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.