NK Celje — KF Egnatia Rrogozhine: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NK Celje come into this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie with a clear, though not overwhelming, analytical advantage over KF Egnatia Rrogozhine. The expected pattern points toward an open match with several attacking phases rather than a cautious contest. Celje should look to control the game through sustained pressure, while Egnatia may still find opportunities if the hosts leave space during their forward movements.
The balance of the available signals favours a home victory, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for a more competitive outcome. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, which reflects the possibility of Egnatia contributing to an entertaining contest even if Celje are the stronger side overall. The most plausible scenarios include Celje winning without conceding, a narrower home victory, or a draw if the visitors withstand the initial pressure and make effective use of their chances.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.