NK Celje — KF Egnatia Rrogozhine: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.42 → now 1.60 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 3.90 |
| X2 | was 7.00 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
NK Celje come into this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie with a clear, though not overwhelming, analytical advantage over KF Egnatia Rrogozhine. The expected pattern points toward an open match with several attacking phases rather than a cautious contest. Celje should look to control the game through sustained pressure, while Egnatia may still find opportunities if the hosts leave space during their forward movements.
The balance of the available signals favours a home victory, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for a more competitive outcome. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, which reflects the possibility of Egnatia contributing to an entertaining contest even if Celje are the stronger side overall. The most plausible scenarios include Celje winning without conceding, a narrower home victory, or a draw if the visitors withstand the initial pressure and make effective use of their chances.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.